The Communists’ Dilemma

There is a problem that the VCP is facing today, one that has sparked much debate among the top members of the Communist leadership.  This problem has much to do with Vietnam’s relationship with the two juggernaut nations: The United States and the People’s Republic of China.  It is obvious that both of these countries play a major role in Vietnam’s economic operations, as both countries share interests in Vietnamese goods and services.  However, the relationship that Vietnam shares with these two countries is highly delicate.

Every action that Vietnam makes, it must do so in a manner that defends the country’s interests without alienating its partners.  This task is more difficult than it sounds however, as China and the U.S. have very different objectives.  In most cases, American interests tend to conflict with the Chinese, which usually means that any stance taken by the Vietnamese government will conflict with at least one side, if not the other.  Therefore, in order to maintain a good footing politically, the Vietnamese government will have to take strategic steps that will protect the country’s interests.

One of the major issues that prevents further cooperation between the U.S. and Vietnam is the VCP’s constant abuse of human rights.  The totalitarian dictatorship of the Vietnamese Communist Party raises many barriers for the United States in terms of establishing economic and military ties.  Some of the members in the VCP want to better relations with the U.S., they might even want to improve the human rights situation in the country.  Unfortunately, other factions in the Party are bent on maintaining power, even at the price of losing land to the Chinese.  Which brings me to the other side.

Vietnam’s relationship with the Peoples’ Republic of China can be characterized as less than equal.  On many occasions, China feels the necessity to flex its growing military and political power on the Vietnamese people, invading Paracel, Spratly, and harassing the fishermen in the Eastern Sea.  Even so, the Chinese still gain favor from the more conservative branch of the Party.  The “Conservatives,” otherwise known as the cowards, are the ones who put the Party before everything else.  They suppress the citizens, sell land to the Chinese, and will do anything, all for the sake of maintaining their power, and “the Party.”

It is possible to distinguish the Liberal strand of the Party from the Conservative branch, though the individuals responsible are still less than clear.  The Liberal camp can be characterized as those who want to develop closer ties with the United States and stand up to China on issues like Paracel and Spratly.  They are the ones who might take a second look at reforming the Party in order to move forward.  The Conservative side are the ones who want to maintain the Party rule, no matter what the cost.  These guys side with China in order to cling onto their power, disregarding everything else.  In other words, they are the puppets of China.

So what is the Communists’ Dilemma?  Well, let’s sum it up.  The Communists today are faced with a choice: either side with the U.S., make the necessary changes to the system and risk the complete disintegration of the one-party system, or side with China, continue to suppress the people, slowly let the land get taken away, but then carry on the rule of the Party.  The dilemma can be summed up by the following: “Side with the U.S., lose the Party.  Side with China, and lose the country.” To any rational thinker, the choice is obvious: reform the country, defend the country, and let the Party fade away!

Sadly, many in the VCP still regard the Party as the highest significance.  They can’t think in terms of right or wrong, but only what they can do to defend their own interests.  However, the circumstances have changed significantly since then.  Some members of the VCP finally realize that nothing good can come from siding with China.  They seem more interested in developing U.S.-Vietnam relations, maybe even to improve the country.  This is more than speculation, but still requires more substantial evidence for further examination.  What is apparent is that the Vietnamese Communist Party is no longer set on selling out to China.  At this time, the size of the resistance is difficult to measure, only time will tell if it is strong enough.

3 Responses to “The Communists’ Dilemma”

  1. Tran Nguyen Dan Says:

    Resistance is resistance, I hope this may accelerate the collapse of the VCP, so that our fatherland may once again be free. But for now, we really have to just wait and see.

  2. An War All between Comunist China and Comunist Vietnam will never happen. Because if War All occures, both Comunists China and Vietnam will be finished and thae both know that. The reasons are as follows:

    I, On China Side:

    1, China has been a fragmented county in both peoples and geography and will be so. If China makes War All to Vietnam, China would face a lot of internal struggles among them, as this is the time a lot of Generals will cease the opportnuty to establish warlordship in many parts in China.
    2, The econmical differences among the Hans themself are too great. The poors, who are the majority people in China today, would not support the Chinese Comunist goverment as thay have recognized that they have been exploited so badly to form a current RED Capitalists.
    3, Other ont Hans people in China who have been suppred by Hans would be rising up to take back thier countries.
    3, Other countries bordering with China will move thier armies to retake the lost lands occupied by China in the past.
    4, China would risk to be isolated by world nations, economicallt for their beligilerence.

    II, On Vietnam Side

    1, This is the chance the Vietnamse people would get rid of the Comunist Party. As thay have known in order to win the WAR ALL with China, Vietnamese has to be ONE and Coomunist Part can not represent that.
    2, All RED Capitalists in Vietnam would lose thier privileges.

    With above noted reasons, Both Comunist China and Vietnam never want to go to WAR with each other.

    Under those reasons, China comunist would be better off by doing what they have done to gain lands and seas from Vietnam without going an War All.

    In order to retain the power, Vietnam Comunist will sucumb to China’s demand bit by bit.

    At this point in time, China and Vietnam standing is not considered Partners even though they both have the same political system. And at this point in time ther is no sign of Liberals. I think the Vietnam comunist are playing game with the people of Vietnam.

    • I like to point out on #4 on China’s side. China has a long disputed border with unstable Russia and the resurgence of extreme nationalism might lead to terrirotial demands. China also has a disputed border with India which resulted in a short war in 1962 and a 1986 border clash. India’s population will surpass China’s by 2020, and Indians are irritated by Chinese military sales to their archrival Pakistan. Tensions with Vietnam remain since 1979 when China invaded to “teach them a lesson” about invading Cambodia, resulting in a stalemate which killed 55,000 Chinese. Finally, China is wary of the Japanese, who killed millions of its citizens during World War II. Japan spends more on its military than China and possesses the most powerful air and naval force in the Western Pacific.

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